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The Ultimate Nightmare Scenario for Trump Supporters
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The Ultimate Nightmare Scenario for Trump Supporters
Consider this scenario, The Twice Impeached, 4 Times indicted Donald Trump has breezed to the GOP nomination, effectively ending the contest on Super Tuesday as his only real rivals, former South Carolina Gov.
Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis bow out after winning precisely zero contests each.
Yet throughout what would have been the back half of the primary and caucus calendar, Trump is on trial in Georgia (for election interference) and Florida (in the classified documents case), and is then convicted by a Fulton County jury not long after his official nomination at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in mid-July.
It is not hard to imagine that Trump’s conviction, as predicted by all available polling, blows apart his White House run.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll this week found that 52 percent of Republicans would not vote for him if he was in prison on Election Day.
Let’s say that the relentless grind of polarization and partisanship shaves that number down to just 20 percent—this still would represent a landscape-altering disaster for the GOP.
According to 2020 exit polls, self-identified Republicans were 36 percent of the more than 158 million Americans who cast a ballot in 2020, or about 57 million voters. 20 percent of that group is 11.4 million, and let’s be especially charitable and assume that they just stay home. In 2020, that would have turned Biden’s 4.5 point national popular vote win into a 12-point romp with an Electoral Vote total pushing 400.
If an imprisoned Trump, recently convicted of trying to illegally install himself in power as dictator, is down 12 points heading into Election Day, that could exert significant downward pressure on House and Senate candidates, handing Democrats the kind of broad-based repudiation of the GOP that they have dreamed of throughout the Trump era.
The looming mystery of what it would mean to elect a president currently serving jail time would thoroughly dominate the election to the exclusion of issues that are currently working to the GOP’s benefit—lingering price increases, high interest rates, dissatisfaction with immigration policy and the pervasive sense that Biden is simply no longer up to the task.
And there would be little meaningful room for maneuver for Republican elites as this nightmare scenario unfolds.
The Republican Party’s Rule 9 allows for candidate replacement for “death, declination or otherwise” but does not specify what “otherwise” actually means.
And even if they were to interpret it broadly as including “our candidate is in jail and it really stinks for us,” the number of Trump die-hards they might bleed out should they unilaterally stick Haley or DeSantis atop the ticket could very well exceed the number that would refuse to turn out for a potential Convict-in-Chief. That’s assuming they beat ballot deadlines to do so anyway, and that those efforts are not challenged by Trump in court.
You don’t have to go very far back in history to see how taking this kind of risk has panned out. Hillary Clinton was under FBI investigation throughout the 2016 primary campaign, and Democratic voters made her the nominee anyway.
Even just the brief, infamous reopening of that investigation the week before the election by then-FBI Director James Comey seems to have dented her support just enough for Trump to squeak through.
And that investigation was a complete nonsense scandal about a private email server that harmed no one, not an effort by a vengeful ogre to undermine the peaceful transfer of power between parties for the first time in American history.
Yet knowing full well that this fiasco is more likely to happen than not, elected Republicans are still mostly sitting around waiting for some deus ex machina to rid them of Trump rather than being proactive about it, or worse—looking only at the toplines in the polling and concluding that Trump is as good a bet as anyone else.
He’s not. And the reality is that only a whole party effort, from elected officials to donors and party functionaries, has any chance of depriving Trump of the nomination and sparing them another humiliating defeat, this time by backing a twice-impeached convicted felon facing dozens of other charges who will, in a best case scenario, spend the rest of his miserable life fighting to remain a free man.
That fight could be Trump’s alone—if only they could convince their own primary voters to come to their senses. Judging from the tepid attacks on Trump by his non-Chris Christie rivals, the voters will have to do that without a lot of guidance from the politicians seeking to replace him.
https://www.newsweek.com/ultimate-nightmare-scenario-trump-supporters-opinion-1850543
newsweek.com
The Ultimate Nightmare Scenario for Trump Supporters
Republicans are walking into their own Trump trap—one that might not just cost them the presidency but any ability to be competitive down ballot if they saddle themselves with a future inmate as their nominee.
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3 Replies
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The Ultimate Nightmare Scenario for Trump Supporters
Posted by outdoorsguy on January 1, 2024 at 4:41 pm
This is all based on a flawed premise that Donald Trump will actually win the 2024 election. He won’t. Therefore the Republican primaries are just for show.
Democrats will once again flood neighborhood ballot boxes with thousands of ballots marked Biden.
Signatures won’t be verified, nor will it be possible to verify that the person who allegedly filled out the ballot actually did fill it out.
This is how the Democrats will once again “win” the Presidential election.
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No, there is a slight chance in hell that he will win the election …. the scenario is based on the chance that the brain dead GOP will nominate the Criminal Defendant.
If an imprisoned Trump, recently convicted of trying to illegally install himself in power as dictator, is down 12 points heading into Election Day, that could exert significant downward pressure on House and Senate candidates, handing Democrats the kind of broad-based repudiation of the GOP that they have dreamed of throughout the Trump era.
The looming mystery of what it would mean to elect a president currently serving jail time would thoroughly dominate the election….. And there would be little meaningful room for maneuver for Republican elites as this nightmare scenario unfolds.
NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
https://www.newsweek.com/ultimate-nightmare-scenario-trump-supporters-opinion-1850543
newsweek.com
The Ultimate Nightmare Scenario for Trump Supporters
Republicans are walking into their own Trump trap—one that might not just cost them the presidency but any ability to be competitive down ballot if they saddle themselves with a future inmate as their nominee.
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It is BEYOND comprehension that ANYONE could have any respect, let alone admire or support, for this absolute abomination that we the people have had to endure for over SEVEN years. Like a pandemic that will not go away, we continue to rot our culture, moraes and sensibilities having to listen to all the endless lies, conspiracy theories and BS that comes directly from Donny the con, phoney, fraud, fake, psychopath, BS’r and now traitor and his psychofans. The blessing, if there is to be one, is that donny has done a great job of exposing what most people have thought/known for years: we (not all) are a racist, selfish, self-serving, self-indulgent, religiously adrift, gullible and greedy society that takes our delicate Democracy for granted. People MUST get involved, become aware, engaged and VOTE! Treat this voting cycle like your life depended on it.
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