The primary risk to the analysis is the speculative nature of the bond market. I’m arguing in favor of lower 20-year+ yields. Conflict in the middle east, tariff effect pass throughs, or reignited economic growth could override my analysis, and lead to value destruction – keep in mind , TLT has shed over 45% in price returns on a 5-year trailing basis.

Additionally, TLT holds a targeted maturity structure, resulting in cyclical behaviour. It’s not a hold-to-maturity treasury ETF, adding an additional layer of uncertainty to its outlook as its advertised yield-to-maturity probably won’t be realized (for better or worse).

Outlook: Bullish